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tn hcp holders are more law-abiding than maig members

By current accounting, the misnamed Mayors Against Illegal Guns (MAIG) claims or claimed as members at least 15 mayors who have been convicted of breaking various and sundry laws, recorded below in alphabetical order by their last names:

Gary Becker – Plead guilty to sexual assault on a child and child enticement.

Adam Bradley – Convicted of attempted assault, harassment, and criminal contempt.

John Callahan – Improper use of mayoral campaign funds for congressional campaign.

Richard Corkery – Arrested on 28 counts of possessing child pornography, awaiting trial.

David Delle Donna – Convicted of extortion and tax fraud.

Shelia Dixon – Convicted of embezzlement and plead guilty to perjury.

Beth Flansbaum-Talabisco – Charged with bribery and other corruption, awaiting trial.

Jeremiah Healy – Convicted of disorderly conduct and resisting arrest.

Gordon Jenkins – Plead guilty to trademark counterfeiting.

Kwame Kilpatrick – Plead guilty to two counts of perjury and one count of assault on an officer.

Larry Langford – Convicted on sixty felony counts including bribery, money laundering, criminal conspiracy, and mail and wire fraud.

Frank Melton – Hung jury on charges of conspiracy to violate civil rights and commission of a violent crime while in possession of a handgun. (Frank died a few days before the retrial.)

Eddie Perez – Convicted of receiving a bribe, conspiracy to fabricate evidence, accessory to the fabrication of evidence, conspiracy to commit first-degree larceny by extortion and criminal attempt to commit first-degree larceny by extortion.

Samuel Rivera – Negligently killed his brother-in-law while demonstrating his security guard sidearm (ruled accidental); confessed to fabricating evidence, framing victims, and being an accessory to murder in Puerto Rico; plead guilty to accepting bribes.

Will Wynn – Plead guilty to assault.

As of this post, MAIG claims 606 mayors have signed onto their campaign, however, it is known that the Mayors Against Illegal Guns frequently lies about its membership numbers by including mayors who have explicitly asked MAIG to remove their names from the rolls. As such, we will round down a smidge and call their membership and even 600.

Based on those numbers, we may conclude that, since its inception in 2006, the Mayors Against Illegal Guns has suffered a total "failure rate" of 2.5%.

On the other hand, Tennessee currently has 340,066 active Handgun Carry Permits. "Court Ordered / Administrative Revocations" and felony convictions resulted in 108 revocations in 2010, 292 in 2009, 263 in 2008, 262 in 2007, and 200 in 2006. Averaging those numbers gives us 225 revocations per year, which is the number we will arbitrarily use for 2011.

Based on those numbers and that assumption, we may conclude that, since 2006, Tennessee Handgun Carry Permit holders have suffered a total "failure rate" of 0.40%.

In other words, based on similar time periods, Mayors Against Illegal Guns members are 6.3 times more likely to break the law than Tennessee Handgun Carry Permit holders.

However, let us look farther afield – the Tennessee Department of Safety and Homeland Security has been issuing Handgun Carry Permits since October 1996 (before then, individual county sheriffs handled them), and between then and the end of 2010, they have issued somewhere around 393686 permits (including four years’ worth of county sheriff renewals, and all duplications, free permits (how do you score those?), and new resident permits, but not counting overall renewals, for obvious reasons). In that same time period, only 4248 permits have had to be revoked due to court orders, administrative revocations, and felony convictions. As such, over the course of 14 years and change, the handgun carry permit holders of Tennessee have only had a failure rate of around 1.08%.

On the other hand, if we take the Mayors Against Illegal Guns members’ statistics (15 convictions over 5 years) and extrapolate them over 14 years, we find that they have had a failure rate of around 7% even. Amusingly, this indicates that MAIG members are 6.5 times more likely to break the law than TN HCP holders.

Based on these numbers alone, it would appear as though the Mayors Against Illegal Guns members’ time could be much better spent on keeping each other on the ‘straight and narrow’, rather than senselessly seeking to abridge and infringe upon my Constitutionally-protected rights… but that is assuming MAIG’s end goal is actually the reduction of crime, rather than the reduction of firearm ownership.

(Note: This post is courtesy of the Instalanche I received on a previous, similar post. )

(Additional Note: Due to differences in solving the equations, it is not accurate to compare TN’s numbers vs. FL’s numbers, specifically because we are talking about different time periods (14 years and 23 years, respectively), and additionally because Tennessee’s odd HCP history complicates the numbers. )

(Final Note: I would like to thank the Tennessee Department of Safety for providing me the total numbers of permits issued and revoked over the course of the HCP program’s history, available here in *.xlsx format and below as an image.

TNHCPHistorical

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