If I knew a year ago what I know now, this would hardly be a question, but I am still actively pursuing my options thanks to a lot of helpful advice in the previous thread, which brings us to this question:
Is it worth getting into silver (or any precious metal, for that matter) at the moment? Is the current price increase just a bubble bound to pop like the housing market was, or is it just going to keep climbing?
Once again, this is an area where it is hard to get a straight answer, since people are invariably interested in selling you something…
What about lead copper and brass?
As I said in the previous thread, this investment consideration is not going to be instead of ammunition aquisition, but rather in addition to. Diversification is a good thing, and silver has a better volume-to-value ratio.
Personally I’d put the money into self sufficiency items such as heirloom seeds, garden implements, alternative heating methods, a generator, canning/dehydrating supplies, etc.
Just my opinion.
Gold just broke $1,500 / oz. That’s a time to sell, not to buy.
Bottom line: You should have bought in anticipation of the times we’re having, not because of the times were having.
@ alcade: Unfortunately, given our house, its situation, and our yard, none but the last two would actually be of any use to us, and those are also on the list…
@ DJ: Well, that does precisely dick-all for those of us who were not in a position to prepare for the times we are having. Prices are up, yes, but the question is whether or not they are going to keep going up – back in 2008, ammunition prices kind of levelled off, and people thought we were out of the woods and slacked off on their buying. Those prices have not decreased since, and it turns out you should have just kept on buying. The question is whether or not the same is currently going on with precious metals and the like.
This purchase consideration is for the future, because I have every reason to believe that future will be worse than what we have now. The only question is how bad…
Well, I am still holding the gold that I am currently invested in, so if its not time to sell then it may still be time to buy.
I think ANY commodity is a good bet while bHo is still in office. With the way they are driving down the dollar, I would rather be invested in anything with intrinsic value. Just dont limit yourself to gold as the end all be all… it is after all just a commodity, just like anything else in that category.
BTW – Give cotton a look. Its performance has been through the roof, and it may be a good play for the short term to come.
“Well, that does precisely dick-all for those of us who were not in a position to prepare for the times we are having.”
Well, yeah, unless you accept it as the warning it was meant to be, which is to beware the #1 Rule of Neophyte Investing: Buy High, Sell Low.
@ Gunmart: I am generally looking at purchasing actual, physical manifestations of the products in question – real, honest-to-God silver, specifically – so cotton kind of fails on the “value per volume” rating as well. My investments are doing well enough to be considered “satisfactory”, but they are still based on the dollar… which ain’t doin’ too hot.
@ DJ: Perhaps, but it also came off as quite the admonition as well.
In general, my investment style is dollar-cost-averaging, simply because that involves less input from me, and because it keeps me from monitoring it second-by-second… this will probably be no different.
Dollar cost averaging works. Been there, done that. Its advantage is not that it requires less input from you, rather its advantage is that it removes the temptation entirely to “time the market”. It’s not so much that it requires less input from you, rather it does not require analysis that you likely don’t have the data/opportunity/ability to perform.
Linoge, like all such advice, I’d caveat mine with the fact that I’m not a professional financial advisor and your results may vary. And honestly, you’d do better if you took the investing advice of Warren Buffet rather than mine – but here are a few thoughts. I’ll presume that you already have the essentials to get you through a short duration disaster (financial, man-made, or natural), and you’re already dollar cost average investing in something – so that’s already covered. As for precious metals, I’d consider silver. It’s cheap enough still that you can buy a fairly nice amount without spending a fortune, and it’s also easily sold or bartered. Finally, if the price should tumble, it probably wouldn’t be as bad as some other investments, and at least its something that you can hold in your hand and will always have at least some value. But, like I said, YMMV and even Warren Buffet once lost a fortune by investing in copper. So, let the buyer beware.
Can I ask why you want to actually hoard away physical gold?
Its gonna be tough to get full market value for it when it comes time to sell it off, and in a SHTF situation its not gonna be all that useful to you or anyone you want to sell/trade it to.
If you are really just wanting to increase/preserve wealth, a publicly traded gold index fund would be a better way to go.
*No snarkyness intended. I really am asking why that is your preference.
Don’t know. Sucks huh?
Lots of talk behind silver continuing to make gains based on existence ratios to gold, the current value discrepancies and conspiracy theories of price fixing. *shrug* I’m not sure. This feels like a bubble to me; I find myself spending more on ARs and 5.56×45 now that I stop to think about it. Les Jones has a more “buy” outlook and I can’t fault his thinking much either.
But, again, I don’t look at metals as an investment. I look at them as a way to not go backwards. And to have something in my hand when the electricity stops and (hopefully this doesn’t happen) all the 1s and 0s that make up my 401K up and disappear.
@ DJ: Yeah, that was kind of implied (poorly) in the “keeps me from monitoring it” concept – if I am not keeping tabs on it constantly, I will not suffer from the knee-jerk urges to do something about whatever the account is doing… and, trust me, things like that, I could totally micromanage
.
@ Alan J.: Yeah, no worries, any advice I receive here will be considered, weighed against people who do this kind of thing for a living, and so forth, and ultimately the choice will always be mine, with the full weight of its responsinbility resting on me
.
That said, yeah, we are in a relatively comfortable position at the moment – we need to up our on-hand food supplies a bit, but that is more a function of organization/storage than anything else. We have no debts save our house, and our six-month fund is in place. All of these considerations are in addition to that, definitely rather than in place of
.
Silver is currently the front-runner in my considerations, pretty much exactly for the reasons you mention – it is, after all, hard to pay for a loaf of bread with platinum
.
@ Gunmart: If we are talking about a full-blown SHTF situation, all the indexes, mutual funds, and whatever-the-hell else in the world are not going to do you a bit of good (see “bank run, history”), for exactly the reasons aczarnowski mentions – they are just a collection of 1s and 0s, with their only “backing” being an increasinly valueless currency.
My procuring (hoarding, perhaps, but that road leads to “armories” and such) precious metals is less about making money, and more about ensuring that it will still be around in the future… a concept I am increasingly unsure about when it comes to the American dollar.
@ aczarnowski: I sure as hell hope this is a bubble, but part of me worries that it is not, and what that will mean for the country… But, yeah, Les and I have been talking a bit, and I can definitely see the reason in his positions…
*sigh* As I said, I wish I was thinking about this a year ago, but we had just bought a house, and it is not like that is always going to be worth what we paid for it…
My thought about gold and silver is, it’s generally always a reasonable time to buy. Either the price goes up, in which case you needed the gold and silver, or the price goes down, and yeah, you lost money, buy your economy probably didn’t crash, either.
It’s like carrying a concealed pistol, really. It’s an insurance policy you really prefer to not have to cash. But if you do, goddamn, you’re glad you have it.
Yeah… I think we have come to the conclusion that now is probably the wrong time to buy in bulk, but we are seriously considering a dollar-cost-averaging approach to physical precious metals… of course, that “bulk” idea may change if I can find someone trustworthy to appraise these stamps I forgot I had.
Primer: http://www.backwoodshome.com/articles2/buckley126-2.html
A thought RE: 1oz silver. CANADIAN Maple Leaf 1oz. bouillon coins have a face value of $5 CDN vs. American Eagle’s $1 FRN. Should the price of silver ever collapse that low again, your Maples will have a stop-loss face value floor of $5.
Huh. Should have figured one of those sites would have something useful. Thanks!
And, of course, the other side of the “face value” debate is that neither may not actually be able to buy a whole lot should that situation arise
. Still, there is something to be said for that line of reasoning…