the numbers are out there

One specious myth that crops up from time to time when dealing with hoplophobic anti-rights advocates is that, as the number of firearms owned by citizens increases, so too does the number of firearm-related deaths. On the surface, this myth seems to hold water, simply because it is natural to think that the more pieces of a certain piece of equipment there are, the more often an accident could occur, or someone could misuse it and intentionally hurt someone else.
Interestingly, though, that hypothesis is demonstrably false, at least in the case of firearms.
Before we delve into the specifics, though, I would like to touch on one small detail – when comparing deaths from one time period to another, one must be certain to use rates, not raw numbers. Populations change over the years, and due to increased populations, the raw numbers may increase as well, casting tremendous doubt on any comparisons made between the year in question and a previous year. However, once you factor in the relative populations at the time, an accurate comparison can be made.
Moving on to disproving the myth, we are somewhat hampered by the lack of statistical information over the years… Records of the number of firearms in citizens’ hands are… well… effectively non-existant. However, using a study published in 1997 (but performed in 1994), and another performed in 2003, we can pull a few numbers out of something a little more substantial than thin air.
First up, in 1994, it appears as though there were somewhere around 192,000,000 firearms in circulation in America. On the other hand, in 2003, there were between 238,000,000 and 276,000,000 firearms in circulation (call it 257,000,000, for the sake of simplicity).
Second, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives is kind enough to document how many firearms are produced in America every year. Unfortunately, their numbers do not go back to 1994, but the data they do have indicates that between 2,000,000 and 4,000,000 firearms are produced every year for civilian consumption.
So, between 1994 and 2003, it is very safe to say that the number of firearms in America increased, by somewhere between 46,000,000 and 84,000,000 (call it 65,000,000, for the sake of simplicity), giving us around a 33.85% increase in the number of firearms in America.
Comparitively speaking, the population of the US in 1994 was somewhere around 263,125,826, and in 2003, it was somewhere around 290,447,644. Thus, the firearms-per-person ratio changed from 0.7297 to 0.8848 over the course of those nine years, indicating a 21.25% growth in the rate of firearm ownership.
Ok, so we have proven the first part of the hypothesis – over the recent history of America (generalized from the 9-year dataset we are considering), the number of firearms in civilian hands has increased, both in terms of raw numbers, and in terms of the average number of firearms-per-person in the US.
How about firearm-related deaths?
This specific dataset is often a bone of contention between anti-rights advocates and pro-rights advocates, however, I am willing to give the other side of the debate the benefit of the doubt – for the purpose of this post, I will count all firearm-related deaths (though I firmly believe that suicides and police-action-related-deaths should not count, and likewise believe that accidents should not either). To find these numbers, I will be using the Center for Disease Control National Center for Injury Prevention and Control WISQARS Fatal Injuries: Mortality Reports search system.
Since our firearm ownership data only goes back to 1994, we will start there. In that year, there were 38,505 firearm-related fatalities out of a population of 263,125,826, yielding a rate-per-100,000 of 14.63.
And what about 2003? Well, in that year, there were 30,136 firearm-related deaths out of a population of 290,447,644, resulting in a rate-per-100,000 of 10.38.
The raw numbers of firearm-related deaths decreased by 21.74%, and going from a rate of 14.63 to 10.38 over the nine years indicates a 29.04% decrease in the rate of firearm-related deaths.
Ok, so we have disproven the second part of the hypothesis – over the recent history of America (generalized from this nine-year dataset we are considering), the raw number and rate of firearm-related deaths have, in fact, decreased.
Conclusion: the hypothesis that more firearms in civilians’ hands results in more firearm-related deaths is demonstrably false. No such causality or correlation exists, as borne out by the numbers shown above. Unfortunately, despite this myth being just that – a myth – hoplophobic bigots still seem to cling to it at every possible opportunity. Feel free to link them back here, should you happen to stumble across an instance yourself.
If anyone has any data concerning American firearm ownership before 1994 or after 2003, or firearm-related deaths before 1981, I would certainly be interested in expanding this dataset (for example, if we look at the full WISQARS range (1981 to 2006), the rate of firearm deaths per 100,000 drops from 14.84 to 10.34, but I have no corresponding firearm-ownership data). Furthermore, if I screwed up my numbers anywhere, feel free to correct me – multitasking is bad for math.